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Gold/Mining/Energy : Nuvo Research Inc -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Montana Wildhack who wrote (8419)	1/14/2002 1:13:54 AM
From: axial	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14101

Hi, Wolf - I thought your summation was excellent. I know deciding on a number for the probabilities is "iffy" - it gives me a lot of trouble, because the number hides many assumptions, each of which takes an eternity to explain and justify. ;) As usual, >smile< I feel the final number errs on the cautious side: I have to spend a lot more time on your analysis, so I'm reluctant to say anything that would be taken as an adverse comment. As you know, I believe that everything that DMX intends to do in the next year, and every recent comment by Rebecca, is consistent with extremely strong WF10 results - I'm guessing, virtually an extension of Vanderbilt. The expression of intent to acquire the remainder of Oxo Chemie, and to list on NASDAQ, unsupported by any other information, and in the absence of new sources of revenue indicates a sea change in the thinking at DMX. These decisions entail huge costs, and risks. My inference is that the decisions about the future are supported by major good news: that can only be WF10. There are other less scrupulous scenarios, but I find these completely inconsistent with the evidence on the the nature of the corporate culture. In short, there is a motivator for this sudden burst of corporate optimism, and it can only be WF10. OK, getting to my point...>g< I am a strong believer in the concept of "critical mass" when it comes to the psychology surrounding a stock. It is my belief (only!) that DMX, for a number of reasons, has been "below the radar". These reasons include the unorthodox strategy that Rebecca has chosen, and the traditional mechanisms by which a stock becomes a public darling. For a number of these reasons, including depression of the price by the Acqua transactions, I think DMX is being grossly underestimated. Recognizing that a stock's price reflects both sentiment and fundamentals, I believe that strong WF10 P3 results will have an astounding effect on the price. Furthermore, I believe that effect will be accompanied by a re-evaluation of DMX: that its refusal to take the easy road (as 'allessard' pointed out on SH) will be recognized as a generator of superior returns. IMO, that realization will add a premium to the price. Finally, if the P3 results are consistent with Vanderbilt, then it is a virtual certainty that it will be fast-tracked. I cannot conceive of any other course, given the anticipated results: I question whether it would even be ethical to take any other option. I think that these factors, in aggregate, will have an effect that is hard to appreciate, now. I believe we are perhaps a little wrapped up in the clinical, analytic and scientific rationales underlying the stock's performance, and the psychology that has accompanied the hard slogging, and waiting. The phenomenon that occurs when the public perceives a winner, when it sees the chance to buy success has not changed, even in this Bear Market. So, I do not fault your analysis, at all. But I believe that the perception of DMX will change, at some point - and when it does, look out! Best regards, Jim