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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert Scott who wrote (27582)	1/14/2002 8:05:14 AM
From: ajtj99	Respond to of 52237

Robert, this is no ordinary recession. You have to go back to possibly 1930 for a good comparison. We had a capital goods recession first, which is bass-ackwards, and an L-shaped recovery. Capital goods slowdowns are laggards in a recession. The consumer recession comes next, with further capital goods slowdown. Map that out. When the market appears murky, T/A helps clarify it. Wedges will break and H&S formations will resolve. It is not a matter of if, it is a matter of when. Good luck.

To: Robert Scott who wrote (27582)	1/14/2002 10:35:05 AM
From: Michael Watkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

> We were on our way to retest the April lows < Agreed. On 9-10 price was far too close to not have tested. Its highly likely it would have been at least a marginal new low, based on the trajectory and acceleration of price to the downside. It had taken just over a month to move down almost 450 points on $COMPQ after all. > when the terrorist attack happened. That caused an artificial new low. < Disagreed. Price would almost certainly have moved down below the prior low, probably by 1-3 days range worth. As it was, price moved lower by not quite 300 points. At least 150 points of that I'd estimate would have likely occured anyway. So an extra 150 points for a significant economy altering terrorist event? If that's not unusual, what is? Note that the $SPX was already testing the April lows on 9-10. While its quite possible that price reaction after 9-11 accelerated some sort of bottoming effect, its at least equally possible that it didn't. Finally, I offer this for thought - is this market something we've seen before, or not? trendvue.com Japan remains the closest I can find. A quick search on the net reveals this chart: csf.colorado.edu Could the Nasdaq, and even broader markets, be in their own version of the early 1990's in Japan? With a much lower low to come (J92)? Who knows. Sure, many aspects of culture, politics and business are different between Japan and elsewhere. But a speculative bubble is a bubble. Even in ordinary times I do not believe in price prediction; how does one even begin to believe in predicting, or modelling, market movement after a massive speculative bubble and the resulting destruction of capital that we have been witnessing? Fortunately my one day at a time approach allows me to participate, in both directions of price movement, and not worry about long term long strategies failing due to new eras. Gosh I miss that term being bandied about daily! ;)