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To: GraceZ who wrote (143606)1/14/2002 3:26:42 PM
From: Horgad  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 436258
 
If gold rises against the dollar won't the dollar likely fall against other currencies? And if so, does that mean that US buyers of SA miners see less gain when gold rises because the rand becomes stronger against the dollar?

Example:
1 dollar = 11.56 rand
POG = $285.00
SA miner sells 1 ounce of AU and gets $285 or 3295 rand.
Cost per ounce is 2000 rand.
Profit is 1295 rand or $112.02.

Lets then say POG goes up 20% and dollar falls an equal amount against the rand.

1 dollar = 9.248
POG = $342
SA miner sell 1 ounce of AU and gets $342 or 3163 rand.
Cost per ounce is 2000 rand
Profit is 1163 rand or $125.75 an increase of 12%.

Now lets say that POG stays the same but the dollar strengthens 20% against the rand.

1 dollar = 11.10 rand
POG = $342
SA miner sells 1 ounce of AU and gets $342 or 3792.2 rand.
Cost per ounce is 2000 rand.
Profit is 1792.2 rand or $161.46 an increase of 28%.

Obviously the best thing for US holders of SA miners would be for gold to up while the rand collapses against the dollar, but this unlikely to happen, no?



To: GraceZ who wrote (143606)1/14/2002 7:24:21 PM
From: LLCF  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 436258
 
<It appears that this is a heads I win, tails I win and this is what makes it highly suspect! Nothing in the investment world ever works out this way.>

Actually I think it was Heinz that said that all the SA producers were just stupid cheap and were being held down by reluctance of foriegners to buy, and some forced selling.

DAK