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To: stockman_scott who wrote (46348)1/14/2002 1:33:17 PM
From: Sully-  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 65232
 
Fed's Minehan repeats US downturn may be nearing end

MANCHESTER, N.H. Jan 14 (Reuters) - Boston Federal Reserve President Cathy Minehan said on Monday that the worst of the U.S. economic downturn may be over, but she is skeptical that a solid recovery is taking hold.

Minehan's speech before Greater Manchester Chamber of Commerce on the economic outlook for 2002 was a repeat of remarks made last Friday in Connecticut, and echoed the cautious tenor in comments made by Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan on the same day.

``Much of the incoming data now suggest there may be some bottoming out and a recovery may be in works for 2002. The big question is what that recovery will look like,'' Minehan said in prepared remarks.

She said skepticism is warranted when looking at economic forecasts that call for a short, shallow recession with a return to growth at a very solid pace by the last half of 2002. She said she takes those forecasts with a ``large grain of salt.''

Many Wall Street economists predict that the economy, which slipped into recession last March with national output shrinking by 1.3 percent in the third quarter, will return to positive growth in the first quarter.

Greenspan, in his speech last Friday, said the economy is stabilizing but he did not mention a rebound and said that risks remain.

Financial markets, which were pricing for a quick recovery this year, took Greenspan's speech as a signal that the Fed would cap 4.25 percentage points of interest rates the past year with one more cut at its policy-setting meeting on Jan. 29-30. Such a cut would bring overnight borrowing costs to 1.50 percent from 1.75 percent, and then remain on hold for a protracted period.

biz.yahoo.com