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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crossy who wrote (1649)	1/15/2002 10:26:16 AM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95596

Accounting for Cash Thanks for taking the time to explain your ideas on valuation. I too have a hard time buying high price/sales companies, no matter how good they are as they eventually have to come down to reality. If they are tiny, then it is not that big a deal, but when they get to be the size of Maxim I start to wonder. As for cash on the books and how to value it- Why not consider it as an annuity that uses the 10 yr note for the interest component and perhaps a 10 or 20 year repayment for the annuity? This will give you a cash flow going forward that you can use in your discount model. I believe companies use "cost of capital" when looking at ideas and their goal is to get returns in excess of the cost of capital. This used to be about 15% but could be lower these days (12% ?) which explains why many good companies I own (LRCX and Agilent) that had low or zero debt went out and got more dept late last year when rates were very, very low. Their goals are easier to meet with lower interest rates on their capital. Kirk

To: Crossy who wrote (1649)	1/15/2002 2:29:33 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95596

From Briefing.com: 11:55AM Broadcom (BRCM) 49.78 +1.80 (+3.8%): -- Technical -- Stock looks strong on the session, holding towards its intraday high on solid volume. Faces initial resistance at 50.00 followed by subsequent overhead in the area of 51.20/51.40. We would become more cautious on the intraday outlook if BRCM were to break below first support around 49.50. 11:48AM Sector Watch: Semiconductor : The index (SOX) bounced after a fractional penetration of yesterday's low but follow through has proven difficult thus far. On an intraday basis watching support at 563 during the current pullback. Failure suggests the group may be vulnerable to a retest of the recentlows (558) and moving average support at 554.50 (200 day simple ma). Weakest performers today are RMBS (-3.1%), LLTC (-1.5%) and MU (-1.4%). 10:44AM NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) 64.00 +4.24 (+7.1%): -- Update -- Technical -- Has already cleared a few resistance points this morning on much stronger than average volume. From current levels, has little in the way of resistance until 65.00 followed by additional overhead at 66.40. To the downside, look for intraday support just over 63.00. 7:23AM NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) 59.76: A number of firms are positive on NVDA: Morgan Stanley says the co shows excellent execution and is seeing strong demand across all product lines, and should see strong growth from new products in 2003-04; raises 2002-03 ests and raises price target to $90 from $70. Prudential believes that MSFT's rumored "HomeStation" Xbox/PC/set-top convergence product is real, and should be a significant opportunity for NVDA. 7:13AM Intel (INTC) 34.84: Merrill Lynch's Joe Osha expects INTC to meet or exceed Q4 rev/EPS ests of $6.957 bln/$0.12, and believes that 2002 ests are too low. Continued transition from 0.18 micron to 0.13 micron should improve gross margins, which should improve to 50.4% for FY02. Believes it unlikely that stock will sell off in Q1, and would buy on weakness; profit target is $40. 7:09AM Linear Tech (LLTC) 40.51: Merrill Lynch's Joe Osha downgrades to near-term BUY from Strong Buy, believes that LLTC's focus on maintaining pricing during the downturn may cause it to recover more slowly than competitors such as MXIM. Lowers March qtr rev/EPS ests to $120 mln/$0.14 from $140 mln/$0.17. finance.yahoo.com Looks like the SOX is probably headed to 540 as I suspected. INTC reports tonight after the close as does RFMD and MIPS. Should be very interesting. Great discussion going on here today. I hope to read more. RtS