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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Clappy who wrote (46433)	1/15/2002 9:02:08 AM
From: Dealer	Respond to of 65232

M A R K E T .. S N A P S H O T -- Shares look to regain their footing Retail sales dip 0.1% in December By Julie Rannazzisi, CBS.MarketWatch.com Last Update: 8:41 AM ET Jan 15, 2002 NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- The stock market is looking to open on a solid note on Tuesday, with a smaller-than-expected decline in retail sales set to encourage buyers. The Dow Industrials is now hovering at its lowest level in four weeks and the Nasdaq at its lowest point in two weeks. December retail sales slipped 0.1 percent vs. the expected 1.3 percent decline. Excluding autos, retail sales dipped 0.1 percent vs. expectations for a flat reading. In November, retail sales plunged 3 percent following a heady 6.4-percent jump in October sales. Check economic calendar and forecasts. The broad swath of data on tap this week will help the Fed with its decision on interest rates at the Jan. 29-30 FOMC meeting. The fed funds futures markets are now pricing in a chance of about 70 percent for an ease of 25 basis points at the next Fed gathering vs. only a 25 percent chance at the start of the month. Central bank head Alan Greenspan's remarks last Friday convinced marketeers that the Fed would again pull the easing trigger should the stream of economic releases over the next two weeks show signs of weakness. The futures markets improved modestly following the release of the data. The March S&P 500 contract was up 3.30 points, or 0.3 percent, and was trading about 4.10 points above fair value, according to HL Camp & Co. Nasdaq futures climbed 9.00 points, or 0.6 percent. In analyst actions, Morgan Stanley analyst Douglas Terreson lowered 2002 earnings-per-share estimates on a slew of oil companies, including Dow stock ExxonMobil (XOM). Among the other companies affected: ChevronTexaco (CVX), Amerada Hess (AHC), Marathon Oil (MRO) and Occidental Petroleum (OXY). Morgan Stanley said the move reflected its lowered estimates for commodity prices and refining margins as well as a cut in the 2002 crude forecast to $25 from $22. Crude for March delivery closed on Monday up 7 cents to $18.96. Among the mentioned stocks, Exxon added 0.4 percent on Monday while Amerada and Marathon both fell 1.6 percent. Double-dip recession or not? Morgan Stanley chief economist Stephen Roach said that his expectations for a "double-dip recession" in the U.S. mean that the engine for world growth won't be found here. Even if the U.S. doesn't witness another recession just after it claws its way out of the current one, Roach believes it'll be unlikely that the world will enjoy the type of American-led growth impetus it was accustomed to in the late 1990s. But Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, disagrees with the "double-dip" view, indicating that every business cycle expansion begins at a time when the jobless rate is still rising. "Sure, consumer sentiment may be dented a bit by the rising jobless rate. Just the same, the most important single determinant of real spending is real disposable incomes, and aggregate real incomes are clearly going to rise in the U.S. over the next year despite any plausible increase in the jobless rate," Weinberg said in a research note. Treasurys slump Government bonds weakened further after the retail sales report was released. The 10-year Treasury note was off 6/32 to yield ($TNX) 4.91 percent while the 30-year government bond dipped 3/32 to yield ($TYX) 5.385 percent. In the currency sector, the dollar fell 0.6 percent to 131.04 yen while the euro slipped 0.2 percent to 89.18 cents. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------