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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert Scott who wrote (27629)	1/15/2002 10:28:32 AM
From: Michael Watkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

Actually I don't base my investing on anything other than the charts. As a result I was in cash and net short technology darn close to 'the top' in Spring 2000, back when New Era was a still popular mantra. You'll find plenty of commentary from me on the subject here on SI, from those days. I still remember at one company function sounding a warning to some ex co-workers, over drinks, and they all thought I was drunk, or crazy. "Its a buying opportunity" they claimed with some certain intensity. All through every bounce, and every decline, I've been hearing 'its different!!! its a new era!'. Only the meaning of 'its different!!!' changed in not so subtle ways as stocks were cut in half and then in half again, turning into 'oh, its different'. I also would not make a direct comparison between Japan and the US for exactly the reason you offer - they have not quickly reacted to make the changes required. However it still wouldn't surprise me if the US markets experience charts similar to Japan's, albeit at a faster rate. Dismal scientists seem to have a dismal track record at forecasting over the medium term, and who am I to guess at larger forces which shape our world. But I like to guess just the same, however such thoughts do not influence my buying and selling decisions one bit. I do miss all that new era talk.