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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Vitas who wrote (27631)	1/15/2002 2:12:18 PM
From: isopatch	Respond to of 52237

Vitas. Good post. And well evidenced. Thx/eom

To: Vitas who wrote (27631)	1/16/2002 6:53:58 AM
From: Robert Scott	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 52237

First and foremost, there is only one sector of the economy that is really suffering - the tech sector. The rest of the economy is doing alright so far. This was not the case during the depression. Two, we are not relying solely on monetary policy - that would be a huge mistake. We have had a fiscal policy response with the tax cut and hopefully another one in early 2002. Three, we have had a dramatic reduction in the price of oil - this provides a huge stimulative effect to both business and consumers. Four, the housing market is healthy and mortgage refinancings have added significant $$ to consumer pockets. I have heard that consumer balance sheets are actually healthier than they were coming out of the last recession with a significant increase in housing prices and stocks in spite of increases in debt. The difference with this recession is that it is a capital spending driven recession rather than a consumer spending one. If the consumer should pull back significantly, it will get bad. Like I said before, there are risks definitely in the global economy and another terrorist attack would cause significant additional problems for the economy. But the environment for stocks is healthy. Whether the market is overvalued or not is debatable but it is a good environment for stocks.