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Pastimes : Ask da_cheif -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chip McVickar who wrote (7894)	1/15/2002 2:06:56 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8150

Hi Chip, I wonder how much move there is yet to bonds.I'm really ignorant here ,but isn't that a lot like shorting at the bottom(of rates that is). Hoping for Intel to firm up the market and see margin expansion as the first two 300 mm fabs featuring .13 micron design and small die size come on stream this month.I heard they were due to yield chips in the middle of the month. Intel has had a hard time keeping supply of 2.0 and faster PentiumIV chips and AMD isn't competing in that clock speed so pricing could well remain firm with shipments of the high margin products actually adding to a more profitable mix even if the total unit sales is somewhat reduced by seasonal variations in the first quarter of 02. IF that comes out in a positive tone, it could well help bridge the current market to the inevitable recovery period. With the double dip fear - isn't that what we just went thru?We were supposed to have recovery in the first half of 01 then the second half,and now we're looking at the second half of 02 - I'm thinking the first half of 02 may well be the surprise. I'm thinking now we have endured the minimum time lags for monetary policy's effect to have a more recognized effect. If the markets anticipate the future at all, that second dip better hurry. JMHO I've been trying to keep up with this thread but do not have a feel for how negative the moving averages have become in past dips - any idea?? Bob