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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Keith Feral who wrote (46479)	1/15/2002 5:14:27 PM
From: FR1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

The only question is whether capital spending will return to the corporate sector. Exactly. That is the be-all and end-all of questions. All this other jabber is a waste of time. The CC is everything. To be more exact, it is a question of when capex will grow and by how much. The problem is that AG's recession brought the destruction of many growth stocks. It killed a lot of the competition. People hear INTC say it will decrease capex and AMAT plus a whole industry drops like a rock because INTC is 20% of all spending in their industry. Telcom is worse. With fewer players the baby bells dominate the market. They make the most money by sitting still and collecting sub money - capex costs them money. With no competition they don't have to move. In fact they do the opposite - merge. Congress will, of course, sit on their ass like animals in a zoo because they know who feeds them. We will eventually develop new competition but we almost have to start from scratch. Kind of like trying to recreate a forest after the rangers set the place on fire. The only good things: 1) Valuations are through the floor. Even modest upturns can make a big difference. 2) AG can destroy internet businesses but he can't destroy the internet. You can burn a house down to the ground but you can't burn the ground down. The internet is still growing and still has tremendous demand. The buildout is still just getting underway and, contrary to popular belief, there is almost no over capacity (there never was over capacity).