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Gold/Mining/Energy : Silver prices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Canuck Dave who wrote (4497)	1/15/2002 10:20:08 PM
From: ild	Respond to of 8010

DAILY COMMENTARY January 15th, 2002 For markets of January 16th CLOSES METAL DEPOSIT RATES (Based on 30 day maturities) FEB GOLD 284.70 GOLD .30/.80% MAR SILVER 4.555 SILVER ------> 15.00/21.00% ............ In silver, the Reuter's analysts were less than bullish expecting an average of only $4.40 per ounce in 2002 and rising to only $4.56 in 2003. Again, I am much more bullish than the mainstream thought, for many varied reasons which are much too voluminous to discuss at present. The silver market is becoming just a bit less mysterious to me at present, as the movement in lease rates now seems to be dictating the spot price. London is at less of a premium to New York, (only 3 and 1/2 on Monday turning into 5 1/2 on Tuesday), and silver is leaving New York warehouses to arbitrage such differences. As of Monday, 1.4 million ounces of silver left Comex warehouses leaving just a hair under 104 million ounces. This is as it should be, and normal market forces appear to now be taking command. I am just beginning to get comfortable trading this market as such news and events unfold. UBS Warburg published a rather excellent research paper on silver recently, which I recommend highly. The following highlights are noted: While silver has had a number of "lease rate squeezes' over the past 4 years, prices have always returned to the original price level as the squeeze retreated. The price of silver has a most positive correlation with industrial production levels over the 13 years. (note: this denotes the most obvious "industrial" nature of the metal and speaks against its "monetary" nature as propounded by some fanatical bulls). The correlation of price movement of silver, copper, and aluminum has been quite good over the past 2 years. (again, this bespeaks of the industrial nature of silver). There is a good relationship between the size of the speculative position in silver and the silver price. *That the fear of Chinese selling of silver has been overblown in the silver market. ............ thebulliondesk.com