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To: Moominoid who wrote (1757)1/16/2002 1:45:11 PM
From: Henry J Costanzo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 2290
 
FWIW here's my count of the Wave 1 (or A) up from the Sept low (COMPX):

Bottom -- 9/21 -- 1387
Wave 1 -- 10/17 -- 1784 -- up 367
Wave 2 -- 10/30 -- 1648 -- down 106
Wave 3 -- 12/6 -- 2065 -- up 417
Wave 4 -- 12/20 -- 1918 -- down 147
Wave 5 -- 1/9 -- 2098 -- up 180

There are no overlaps in these waves, and Wave 3 is the longest, so IMHO this is as valid a count as any for the post-Sept action to Jan 9.

If the foregoing is not pure fantasy, then we're now in a Wave 2 correction of the advance to 2098. Despite all the gloom and doom, the correction so far has been pretty modest - about 20% of the advance had been retraced as of this morning's low.... A FIB 38.2% retracement would take us to 1827. A retracement only to the bottom of the preceding wave 4 would take us to 1936 - which isn't far away.....The fact that we didn't get there right away this morning leads me to believe that the correction is winding down and an upturn is now imminent.... (How's that for being brave???)



To: Moominoid who wrote (1757)1/16/2002 3:40:29 PM
From: Henry J Costanzo  Respond to of 2290
 
Two corrections to last part of my last post: 1) bottom of preceding 4 was 1918, not 1936. 2) Want to delete last sentence, which I characterized as "brave", but was probably stupid. Advance from Sept took almost 4 months and highly unlikely that its correction would last only a few days; guess I should look for more time for the correction, and should look for at least .382 FIB retracement to around 1827 before looking for an upturn