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To: yard_man who wrote (143967)	1/15/2002 9:51:46 PM
From: reaper	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Just got finished reading the Barron's roundtable. Somebody had said to me that those guys were REALLY bearish, which was maybe a good contrarian indicator for the market. But what I read was: S&P 500, year end CY02 prediction: Barton Biggs down <5-7%> Scott Black up 5-10% Abby Cohen up 13-24% Marc Faber no prediction but S&P 500 to 800 “sometime in next 2-3 years” Mario Gabelli down <10%> to up 5% Archie McAllaster lower John Neff down <5-10%> Art Samberg down Oscar Schafer down <5%> to up 5% Meryl Witmer flat to down Felix Zulauf down <50%> to up 10% So my read of this group is that you have two outliers, Abby on the upside and Marc Faber on the downside, and the rest of the group is basically in a range of “up or down 10%”. That is hardly roaring bearishness. Plus, these guys ARE the bears. The BEARS think that the market is going to go down a measly 10% at worst. Two or three weeks ago Barron’s published the opinions of strategists (like Tom Galvin and Steve Galbraith and Abby). Every single one of them, with the sole exception being Doug Cliggott at JPMorgan, thought that the market would be up, with estimates on the S&P ranging from 1250 to 1600. And Cliggot, the “bear”, had a prediction of down <5-10%>. So what kind of distribution does that leave you with. Well, you have a whole bunch of people (very bullish strategists like Galvin, Cohen, Ed Kerchner & Joey Battapaglia) looking WAY up, you have a whole bunch of people (other strategists, Scott Black, Mario Gabelli) looking up a little bit, and you have the “bears” like Barton Biggs, Doug Cliggot, John Neff and Art Samberg (and me <g>) looking down a little bit. Where is NOBODY looking? Well, nobody is looking WAY DOWN (with the notable exception of Marc Faber). Anybody ever seen Luc and Marc Faber in a room together? Cheers