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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: willcousa who wrote (155682)	1/16/2002 10:07:19 AM
From: bambs	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 186894

This is about INTC being a bubble stock. earnings for Q1 were supposed to be 12 cents...they now say 11 cents. revenue was supposed to be up according to analysts now it will be flat to down 9% in Q1. Revenue will be flat about the same as Q1 2001 and Q1 1998. But way far from the the revenue of the bubble years 1999 and 2000. Earnings estimates for Q1 2002 of 11 cents (say they make 12 cents) will be down 25% from the 16 cents they made in Q1 2001. We are starting 2002 with a 25% yoy decline in earnings for intc. things are still getting worse. Q4 is usually up 8% over Q3. It was only up 7%. It also had some from XBOX. INTC now trades with a p/e according to GAAP of 180. the Proforma p/e about 65-70 ish. With proforma earnings expected to be down 25% yoy in Q1 the proforma p/e will still be rising. IMHO. expected 60 cents in real solid earnings for this year is optimistic. I mean GAAP earnings. I also think that the growth rate from the 60 cent mark will be very modest if at all. Given the state of the world economy and the american consumer...I would think that a forward p/e of 20 would be a fair risk level for the average investor. 60 cents, p/e of 20, $12 stock. Bambs