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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: limtex who wrote (46529)1/16/2002 11:30:46 AM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 65232
 
Greeny still shrugs responsibility
says raising rates in 1999 and 2000 prevented worse comedown
he is on drugs
he watched the Japan bubble pop with horror
they repeated it in the USA

we have better controls, instruments, procedures, system, responsiveness, cultural underpinnings
instead of Japan's 12 years of recession
we might get only 4 yrs
almost into the 2nd yr so far
and counting

your response of "recession, that's it" is half the story
if we see crude oil spiking for whatever reason, then kiss off another year for recovery

/ jim



To: limtex who wrote (46529)1/16/2002 11:36:03 AM
From: Mannie  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 65232
 
<Thats really it. Recovery.>

Actually that's half of it, with valuation being the other. Even if we were to get a strong recovery starting today. Valuations are sky high. The market would have to sit still for a considerable amount of time as profits improved, to get back in synch.

More likely is a disappointing recovery scenario, investors get discouraged and the markets revisit the lows.....recovery and and improving markets sometime after that.


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