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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: willcousa who wrote (58946)	1/16/2002 6:12:29 PM
From: mitch-c	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

I try to look at it as a ST directional indicator just before expiration ... the wider the divergence the stronger the "pull." Other TA-style factors (though I'm not an avid TA'er) also influence my decision process. It worked - this time. We can argue that it did so because of an exogenous shock (Intel CAPEX) that TA couldn't predict; but it's hard to correlate exogenous news with market moves in retrospect, too. I think we spend a lot of time building the worry foundation, and then some random piece of (otherwise fairly neutral) "big, bad" news gets blamed for "causing" a collapse. It works the other way too ... where some slightly positive news blows the roof off. Either way, you can occasionally sense the "lean" in the market (Bull-percent is one way) and prepare for it. Just remember that everything you buy or sell is a guess, not a guarantee. - Mitch