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To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (58991)	1/17/2002 12:22:57 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Katherine, I've been charting the ratio of monthly [actually 3 month ma] SEMI orders vs ww semiconductor sales. suite101.com I know this is not the accepted way, but it shows a trend. For one thing, SEMI represents only NA manufacturers. Can you - or anyone - suggest a better way to compute this ratio? I only have the monthly data expressed as 3 month ma to work with. Regarding sustained recovery in IC prices, AMD shows a glimmer of hope as their ASP for Athlon is up. AMD chairman and chief executive officer W.J. Sanders III pointed out that prices for the Athlon XP, introduced last October, "increased dramatically to $90" as the company rolled it to market. dailynews.yahoo.com Gottfried

To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (58991)	1/17/2002 2:13:24 PM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

As a rule of thumb, most industry experts believe that "reasonable" capex levels are about 11% of semiconductor sales. Can you provide some support for this statement? Is there a trend in the capex/sales data? Is there historical precedent for 11% as a golden mean that we will keep reverting to? And how quickly must we revert to the mean? Suppose, for example, that a rogue player like China were to decide to devote a considerably higher ratio of capex/sales in order to meet economic development targets for their next 5-year plan. They decide that it is a matter of vital national interest to surpass Taiwan and have the most efficient fabs in the world. Might that not increase competitive pressure on Taiwan to do likewise in order to stay competitive, thus setting up a dynamic for a longer than usual period of above trend capex? Sam@questions.com