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To: Les H who wrote (144426)	1/17/2002 5:16:11 PM
From: Sonny Blue	Respond to of 436258

Fourth Quarter 2001 Review: hoisingtonmgt.com

To: Les H who wrote (144426)	1/17/2002 6:14:54 PM
From: reaper	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

<<Baseball bubble>> Les, the "baseball bubble" (actually, its a "sports" bubble) may be in the early stages of breaking. Giambi signed w/ the Yankees for a contract that was smaller and shorter than the A-Rod deal last year. While I acknowledge that ARod is a MUCH better player than Giambi and DESERVES more money, that sort of fact pattern has never stopped the owners (at least since the days of collusion back in the 1980s) from escalating contract values every year. ARod right now is looking like the "blow-off top" of player contracts, at $250mm. I would also note that the lesser-light free agents (like Johnny Damon, signed by my home-town Red Sox) are receiving not nearly the interest that they have over the last couple of years and are getting un-inspiring contracts. The Bonds deal is amazingly low for a guy coming off the single-greatest offensive season in baseball history; I know he's old but he's not exactly showing signs of slowing down. What we REALLY need to see to know that a long-term top is in is for a franchise to get sold for a really un-inspiring amount. The Red Sox deal doesn't count, as they are a true one-of-a-kind asset (plus they own about 80% of the cable station that carries the games). What will be really interesting will be to see what John Henry gets from Jeff Loria for the Marlins, or what the Twinkies go for. Personally, I think there are few better examples of the excesses of the last 20 years than baseball player salaries and the rapid escalation in value of sports franchises. If those things reverse, they are a good tell that we are in for more than just a garden-variety downturn, IMHO. Cheers