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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marginmike who wrote (111122)	1/18/2002 5:51:51 AM
From: limtex	Respond to of 152472

mm- I am expecting a pretty bad guidence by QCOM, and for most wireless makers 1. Until last night I would have thought that QCOM should be different than most other wireless makers. Maybe it should still after all there must be significant difference in its cost structure by virtue of the roylaties that it actually does receive as opposed to other manufacturing wireless companies. 2. A lot of the slowdown in wireless is imho a function not so much of so called bubbles and bear markets as it is of the major markets having become saturated. It is a fact that some companies albeit a few are seeing positive growth and forward visibility. QCOM was never going to make its major move by selling voice only products, that big move was always going to depend on data. QCOMs data products have little connection to bubbles in the market. The "bubble" happened in 1999 and early 2000 and that is now nearly three years ago. Technology has moved on a lot since then and the use of the internet has become more pervasive. When one day hopefully before the end of June PCS and VZ open their 1X networks for business QCOM potential will be released. It is doing well in Korea but that is one market. The US market is the biggest market in the World for this product and not only that but as with so many other tech proiducts it needs the US to jump start it. We wait in hope. Meanwhile whenever the NAZ futures are down over 15 points there is usually a disaster of a day. Right now they are down again and the reality of hte market is sadly that if MSFT failed to do anything except start a sell off in mSFT A/H last night then seems to me that it is unlikely that QCOM will do much better this time. Forget about the fact that the stock is down 25% in the last four weeks it looks like $30s can't be far away now and then we get to the March earnings with all the proepsect of the same nail biting all over again. No wonder the fund manangers have been unloading. 3. INTC and MSFT were very similar. Shorlty prior to announcments we had some quite bullish comments from a couple of analysts to the effect that each of them was going to do very well. As a consequence the stock picked up quite firmly even up to the lst hour of trading on each day of the announcement only to sell off quite strongly after the announcment which both times was relatively good but contained some not quite so good element that was enough to ruin the good news such as it was. In the end it isn't bubbles it is a growing economy in which companies can see growth on a qtr to qtr basis in which the market works well and in which tech compnies do even better than the market. The simple fact is that we do not have a normal growing economy now. That isn't anything to do with bubbles it is to do with Mr G and his other genius Fed Govenors who targetted the NAZ despite all the consequence and put up interest rates as business was slowing down. That action effectively blew up the World economy. Its much much harder to re-kindle it. Best, L

To: marginmike who wrote (111122)	1/18/2002 9:55:28 AM
From: Art Bechhoefer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

>>The growth rates in wireless are deteriorating, and money will not be spent that doesnt exist for 3g networks.<< The key issue here is not the overall growth rate in wireless (worldwide), which is still very strong, but the growth rate in CDMA users, which generates either chip sales, royalties, or both. A 30 percent overall growth rate in wireless can still produce a 50 percent or more increase in CDMA related revenues for QCOM. This distinction is not being made by many analysts. Art