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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: limtex who wrote (111142)	1/18/2002 11:55:25 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Respond to of 152472

companies with big IPR postions in global systems don't grow at only 15%. If the 1X deployment ever eventually happens then Q will earn roylaties on a customer base that grows from 15% of world handsets towards say 90% of world handsets assumiong they all go broadband. qcom has grown earnings at considerably less than 15% these past couple years. 15% (or 20% or 30%) in any particular year is not remarkable, but to string together ten 15% years in a row, which is what i am generously assuming, would be quite remarkable. however, even if they string ten 30% years in a row, which would be just mindbogglingly huge, i still see the stock as overpriced relative to my long term appreciation target. that certainly does not mean the stock can't fluctuate wildly in the interim, to the upside as well as the downside. a less generous but by no means miserly assumption would be 9% CAGR, which is still quite healthy as it is 50% greater than long term S&P earnings growth (i think we should tip our hats to a company that can grow earnings 50% faster than the S&P for ten years in a row). my personal buy-in target price for this assumption is somewhat lower.