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To: Joe Krupa who wrote (8456)1/18/2002 3:11:42 PM
From: Joe Krupa  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 14101
 
Further to my last post about an "early prognosis" for this draw, I just realized I forgot a critical part of the equation. That's the average price.

Given that the average price over these 5 days is about 50 cents higher than the average price over the last draw period, I would suggest that $4 million looks like a better guess than $3.5.

joe



To: Joe Krupa who wrote (8456)1/22/2002 11:13:23 AM
From: Cal Gary  Respond to of 14101
 
Hi Joe, here's my early prognosis for the 3 Banditos.
I use the day of the NR as the start date while you used the day before. I did this because they've taken more than the 20 days, disguising somewhat the dates. I chose the start date=NR date just to be consistant, but I can be wrong. So yesterday is day 5 for me.

Target end of draw date is Monday Feb 11,2002.

Here is the day 5 totals:
From Jan 15th
ITG 34,500 $192,804
TK 35,100 $194,674
Dundee 41,100 $230,630

Total 110,700 $618,108

Projection of a $3.0mm draw = $2.4mm draw this period + the prior 0.5mm (or 0.7mm) from last period.

The draw pressure is a lot less this period. I expect when we hit day 11, the trend will start to rise as before given a 'status quo' scenario.

So my famous last word is, in this draw period share price should NOT drop to $5.25, <g>. Also no such 'status quo' monster this period. Between now and Feb 11, we may get the following baby step news:
- 2Q any time now (UK sales of at least $700k CND)
- EU status (other countries, etc)
- EU marketing partner
- EU approval in the 4 EU Countries
- EU launch date
- Carribean Launch news (ya I know)
- FDA Facility Inspection Report !!! F.D.A.eh

Joe,
I think you meant Jan 14, not Dec 14.

First 5 days of this draw (starting Dec 14)

22 Thomson Kernaghan 31,700
14 ITG 34,500
27 Dundee 45,200
Total 111,400


Thanks Joe, for tracking as well.