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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (1678)	1/19/2002 10:10:05 AM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95546

Semiconductor stocks are rapidly becoming more oversold. According to my latest Silicon Investor RSI Screen for 20% RSI as a maximum there are now 43 of 185 stocks in this group. They are as follows: siliconinvestor.com Note: It is necessary to double check the technical information found on this screen. I do not believe it is accurate but is does show a trend to an oversold status that is not likely to be sustainable. Stock symbols of the 20% or less RSI semiconductor stocks. ACLS ACTL ADI ARMHY ASMI AVNX AXTI CMOS COHU CREE DLGS EMKR ENTG GEMP GTGO HEII IBIS IDTI JNIC KLIC KYO LRCX LSI LTXX MCRL MSCC MTLK NSCT NVLS POWI PSEM PXLW SMTC SSTI TER TFS TIGA TQNT UTCI VIRL VSEA finance.yahoo.com A few weeks ago in early December this screen produced a result of 59 oversold semiconductor stocks. Shortly thereafter the SOX started a run that took it back over 600 for the first time since August of 2000. SOX Historical Pricing: chart.yahoo.com Despite the pullback going on now I contend that this is simply just another buying opportunity as buyers will step up again in anticipation of a better than currently expected recovery for the semiconductor industry. Cary, as for MSCC I appreciate your comments on a rather thin profit margin for the company. Looking back over the past year it seems to me that very few companies have maintained the ability to show a profit at all in this industry. MSCC has been one of them. The company has actually been increasing their profit margin through a better mix of sales. We all have our own methodologies for determining what is a good stock to own and when. In fundamental analysis I prefer to stick to more traditional methods and simply compare the stock to its own historical valuations and industry comparisons using a site like WSRN. MSCC despite a low profit margin compared to a company like LTCC is nearing very compelling historical valuations due to a still unexplained sell off in the stock. Lets remember that enough people were interested in MSCC to bid it up to 39 in early December despite its profit margins. Long story short; I don't want to marry any of these stocks but when a stock falls 90% in 5 weeks without one word of bad news it is either now a bargain or another shoe is about to drop. Do you like any of the stocks that showed up on the screen I ran? RtS

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (1678)	1/19/2002 11:21:23 AM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95546

Edit on my MSCC comments. The stock would be a 90% gainer if it returned to 39. Obviously math is not my strongest suit. <ggg> Anyway I am sure there are better stocks (higher profit margins) to discuss I just found MSCC intriguing because it could represent a near double bagger short term if buying interest returns. Question for the thread; Is AMAT, KLAC, NVLS or RTEC better positioned to profit from INTC and other companies reduced capex? Greenspan remarks on economy misunderstood - Post WASHINGTON, Jan 19 (Reuters) - A recent speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan that helped undermine stock prices sounded more pessimistic than intended about prospects for a U.S. recovery, The Washington Post reported on Saturday. biz.yahoo.com Several unnamed Federal Reserve sources told the newspaper the market had ``over-interpreted'' what the chairman had said in Jan. 11 remarks in San Francisco in which he seemed to emphasize ``significant risks'' to the economy. Stock prices fell steeply after the speech, partly because of what investors interpreted as a cautious tone. Bond traders concluded Greenspan was signaling the Fed would lower interest rates again later this month. ``According to several sources, it is much more likely that the chairman will propose that the Fed's target for overnight rates be left unchanged when the central bank's policymakers meet Jan. 29 and 30,'' the Post said in its Saturday editions. That would sit well with many of the other 16 policymakers who will attend the meeting, the sources told the newspaper. Nevertheless, some of the sources cautioned, a rate cut cannot be completely ruled out, the Post said. Part of the confusion over the speech was due to the subtlety of Greenspan's intended message that the recession was likely to end soon, but that a quick, strong rebound was not assured, the Post said. Greenspan, who is keenly aware that his public utterances are closely parsed by the markets and often move global stock and bond prices, originally drafted a more optimistic-sounding speech about the prospects for recovery, the Post's sources said. But the more upbeat tone raised worries that markets would expect a sharper upturn in economic growth than Greenspan foresees. So the speech was altered and much of the optimism leaked away, the sources said. In the final version, Greenspan acknowledged that the recession which began last spring shows signs of ending. But he immediately added emphasis on significant risks which the economy continued to face in the near term. He read a sizable list of risks including weak business profits and investment, uncertain prospects for consumer spending, rising unemployment and the past two years of falling stock prices. Given that litany, many investors and financial analysts quickly concluded Greenspan was preparing the market for another reduction in the Fed's target for overnight interest rates, which now is 1.75 percent. The Fed has lowered the target 11 times, by a cumulative 4.25 percentage points since the beginning of last year, to try to boost the economy as it slid into recession. Greenspan will have an opportunity next Thursday to clarify his message when he testifies before the Senate Budget Committee. RtS