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To: At_The_Ask who wrote (144686)	1/18/2002 2:35:29 PM
From: Petrol	Respond to of 436258

<<Are consumers smart or dumb money when it comes to projecting future economic performance? >> I'm not so sure the average consumer even thinks about future economic performance. Therefore, dumb money.

To: At_The_Ask who wrote (144686)	1/18/2002 2:37:18 PM
From: reaper	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Consumers may very well be "dumb" money. Note that if you parse the consumer confidence number, you will see that EXPECTATIONS (read: hope) is UP while the CURRENT CONDITIONS barometer is DOWN. Consumers may HOPE that all is going to get better, with O'Neil and Bush and Greenie & CNBC telling them so, but the point is that their actual current experience is getting worse. And consumers soon are not going to be able to monetize hope, as they are already at maximum leverage (in terms of % of net worth and % of income); they can hope all they want but they're out of ammo to spend. JMHO of course. Cheers