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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: stockman_scott who wrote (46675)1/20/2002 10:48:48 AM
From: Jim Willie CB  Respond to of 65232
 
next 3-5 yrs: secure Canada oil OR bring fuelcell cost down

it will be 1000 times easier to secure Canadian oil
it has already started
once Canada ramps up production, drilling, exploration, you will very likely see fuelcells backing off as "the solution"

but longer term, surefire, fuelcells will prevail
the cost seems like such an unending obstacle
just read that Ballard reduced the warmup time from 30 minutes to 2 minutes for fuelcell engines on cars

until the US Govt applies an annual $20 billion subsidy to the cost of fuelcell cars, this is gonna stall regularly

some simple math:
roughly 100 million cars in North America
(keep the figure for argument, gotta be in ballpark)
now have a goal to replace 1/4 of the cars with fuelcells
done during turnover of new car purchases
subsidy of $10k per car, times 25 million cars
that comes to $250 billion
we are talking about significant money here
gonna take a long time

meanwhile, oil is plentiful in Canada
both in west provinces (Sask, Alberta) and Maritimes
Suncor's Athabasca field in Alberta has 30 billion barrels of oil
imagine 25,000 sqmiles of oil sand tars
all produced at less than $11 per barrel
our independence from Arab oil lies up north
in the Great White North
last year, US firms purchased $37 billion worth of Canadian energy resources
/ jim