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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (59112)	1/19/2002 3:20:26 PM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 70976

Jacob, LOL! I meant your second paragraph... Clearly, it's different this time (ng): No V-bottom in equip orders. Everyone is guessing how long this flat bottom lasts. IMO, we won't retest the panic selling stock prices of late September 2001 (barring another and worse terrorist attack). Semiequip stocks will be held up at current levels by the expectation of an upturn in orders within 6 months. I'm guessing AMAT bounces around for most of 2002, in the same old 40-50 range. We've had enough bear rallies that have failed in this Bear Market, that investors are learning to SellTheRally. And enough investors have decided that October 2001 was THE bottom, that BuyTheDippers will support stocks at levels well above the 10/01 trough prices. Just like in 10/98, BuyTheDippers got rewarded quickly and handsomely, which reinforces that behavior. Our SEMI orders recovery is almost a year late. What a humbling experience. Gottfried