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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Earlie who wrote (144800)	1/19/2002 7:47:46 AM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Earlie from Earlie: As the post 9/11 rally moved into high gear last fall, I cleared the decks and moved back into the weeds. Yes, Mr. Market had snatched back some of the profits, but it was still a lot more relaxing to be a spectator, watching the lions toy with the gladiators than to be down there in the sawdust. It is an easy thing to tell oneself not to return to the combat zone "until the market provides proof that it has turned" but it is quite another thing to spot the signals. At this end, all the gathered evidence points to a coming implosion, and of course, like all others of my Vaderian persuasion, I would dearly love to leap nimbly into the fray at just the perfect moment before the perfect storm hits, but how to interpret the gathering storm clouds rolling in from the horizon? Probably wrong and probably far too early, but this past week sure spit out some dandy indicators. Many "darling stocks" met or exceeded (drastically reduced) "expected earnings",....... yet they took hits. The Enron collapse refused to recede to the back pages. The SEC actually brought charges against a "pro-forma" reporting issuer. A couple of U.S. financial journals picked up and printed the fact that China's central bank dramatically increased its gold reserves (obviously acquired through the sale of US treasuries, although this wasn't mentioned). The Nikkei flirted with 10000, telegraphing Japanese expectations with respect to the upcoming (March 31) revelations. And a few respected pundits put their reputations at risk with bearish economic forecasts. Old wounds are still painful and some scars have yet to heal, hence this particular bear will tip-toe, rather than stride back into the colliseum in the coming week. And if the lions seem too frisky, a hasty retreat will be taken. That said, it does look like the lions may be suffering from malnutrition. (g) Hand me my dagger and sword, but keep that gate ajar. (g) Best, Earlie