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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: scott_jiminez who wrote (5488)	1/21/2002 11:15:38 PM
From: Doc Bones	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52153

I would certainly agree that a degree of caution in biotech investing now is warranted. There's been a string of failures lately, topped by this IMCL deception. I think myself that biotech has dropped enough lately to reflect these problems, so it's "priced in," but the market is not always rational, and the Enron analogy could be made too strongly, I'll be watching IMCL for now. It's worrisome that the market seems to be realizing that the rise of tech stocks in the last few months was based more on "it must have gotten better by now" than any actual results. And techs going down is always scary. Enron was almost by definition bankrupt when its debt hit junk status, it had contracts that ensured that. Most biotechs have loaded up with cash recently, if anything to excess, and the market understands cash. Also biotech has a history that is not all failure, as it seems to be lately, and when a drug becomes very successful the market has rewarded those companies with rather large valuations, for example Amgen, which has been discussed here. ------ Biotech posters also have histories, and that's why I find your posting of this kind of innuendo objectionable: #reply-16934057 And for biotech investors: CAVEAT EMPTOR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (including ALL of what you read on SI) and: #reply-16938864 The idea that a certain lot of biotech groupies treat SI as their personal fiefdom, premising their behavior on the idea they control not simply the answers...but the questions as well, marches on, laughably. You're implying that even the best posters on SI are not to be trusted. Well, they are trusted because they have a track record over the years on which they can be judged. I don't know of anyone who hasn't made a whopper of a mistake on some stock, but a number of people have compiled terrific long-term records. Newer people have won their spurs with consistently good data and analysis of business and technology. They've enabled biotech tyros like me to do very well investing in this complex area. One should always use one's own judgement, but there are a number of people here who I would trust over any highly-paid analyst, or (god forbid) "registered investment professional." Which brings us to your record. I think it would be beneficial for the newbies that you may influence (I'm sure you realize that the old hands are a lost cause) if you explain posts like the one below, which dot SI like so many forgotten land mines. Feel free to supply demonstrations of your stock-picking prowess too. I may not know a lot about biotech, but I know a joke when I see one. Frankly the idea of you protecting newbie investors from "the regulars" will be a tough one to top. Doc Message 3545809 To:Bernie McDermott who wrote (15938) From: Henry Niman Thursday, Feb 26, 1998 10:38 PM View Replies (2) \| Respond to of 31020 Bernie, If you know that Courtney was probably named "Ron", then you know more than most. I'm not sure if anyone who knows who Courtney, r. Peter Dale, Ron, or a host of other aliases really are. Some have tried to find a Courtney Wilmer and and r. Peter Dale off line or on line (I did a Medline search since Dale is supposed to have a Ph.D. and Courtney is supposed to be a graduate student) without success. I have posted to both, asking for an explanation, especially since it appeared that their posts were self congratulatory and included "tips" form off line friend and relatives designed to stimulate interest in thinly traded penny stocks. To many it looked like a scam. After I posted requests for explanations, all posting ceased.