Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (28015)	1/19/2002 9:32:22 PM
From: Joan Osland Graffius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

Lee, Speaking of food stocks. ADM is having a nice correction these days. Have held a core position forever and took some profits in the high 14's and low $15. Think it is still early to buy but at $11 or under it should be a good investment. They delivered 7% in dividends and stock this year which is not to shabby. One can turn these free stocks into long term capital gains which a a nice advantage with mr tax man. Joan

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (28015)	1/19/2002 9:45:51 PM
From: Captain Jack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

Lee-- we were headed in this direction and as stated AG did the correct thing,, his exuberance was irrational and that caused the deepness of the recession to come very quickly. Had he moved slower he could have softened the blow. People are still saying "this time is different". A few words sent to clients today; Anyone interested in the history of 2 down years in a row of all indexes dropping? Probably not but I'll spill it anyway. It has only happened three times in the past, 1929 -30, 1939-40, 1973-74. The 1st two time frames the economic and military issues were in rare form . In those periods the S&P posted a 3rd year of losses (-47.1% in 31 & -17.9% in '41). The '73-'74 period more closely resembles today and the S&P rose 31.6% in '75. Does all that mean anything?? Probably not but you can tell I have little to do on this cold long weekend. More likely the 11 rate cuts AG has instituted (required due to his irrational exuberance in raising them) will have an effect as long as consumer spending maintains its pace and few take heed of the consumer debt level.................................... As to your mention of W.B.,, remember about 12/12/01 I mentioned I began adding BRKb then at 2245. Well it is at 2499 now and I'm still adding and trading it too. For some time I have suggested staying far away from any company without the "E" and to have a fantastic reason for purchasing anything with a very high P/E. Look for the pre-bubble historical P/E and if much above stay away. GE has a traditionally high P/E in relationship to the S&P or general mkts-- so it and the others like it are SLIGHTLY different on the P/E front. Dividends-- have always been of some importance to the over 50 crowd of which I am a part. Yes, the fast gains were fun but it should have been known they would collapse. I was trading YHOO at $190+ knowing it was not worth 10% of that amount. Another area-- bonds are almost in the same catagory as 4 letter words. Not only have they outperformed the mkts recently but the 6 - 8 % interest on ST high rated corporates have a nice cap gain to be taken at some point in the future,, only to reposition the portfolio position of course. In a nutshell I think we are both saying traditional investing methods have protected the investor from the recent debacle if they were followed. This time is NOT any different than any other time and one must invest only funds that will not be required in the ST and at risk levels dependent upon age and goals. Anyone that believes GX, LU, COMS, and many others will ever see their old highs is in dreamland and should not be allowed to play with real money. Where we disagree is I believe in the LT (5 years +) the mkts will grow. I am not a perma bull but believe this correction should have been expected. Some of the techs and other household names will not be around in 10 years while others will not be recognizable. I suspect MSFT may be around in 10 years but possibly in a completely different form than we see it today. Still, the best place to invest is the US mkts. Sm caps? Value issues? Big caps? Bonds? None of the above-- all of the above...