Hi CB, <<"we have had our fun, now we must suffer," or "the bigger the boom, the bigger the bust”>> … would be off-the-wall in my collapse script, for <<"suffer">> is an alien concept to a platinum clad French Creole Hakka Chinese Trinidadian, and in accordance with my self-described profile, <<"bust">>, or CRISIS, is an event ranked along side of scuba diving with friends, as in "Volatility = friend, Crisis = partner";0)
On boom and bust, I tend to separate economic performance from stock market performance, believing the latter to be normally slightly more beholden to valuation issues than the ups and downs of the economy. For example, HK stock index is at 11,000 now, whereas the Asian Crisis low was 7,600 (all time peak was 16,000), and the HK economy is clearly in a worse shape now than 1998, absolutely and prospect wise. In 1998, we had the US locomotive still chugging, and now we are just tumbling down the incline, gravity powered, but the stock index is much higher, akin more to an impending boom than kaboom. I cannot explain the cognitive dissonance between reality and valuation, other than figuring that the belief in the magic is strong.
So, quoting the traveling David, HK at the street level is, ‘just fine’. Stock index is still strong, relative to normal times, unemployment is 5.6%, just like the US, and property value is stable, just like California, and the shops are full.
The paper asset drama of crisis will play out however it does, chapter by chapter and score by score, with my allocation the way it is now, more or less.
The 'crisis' in my mind that is motivating an introspection of ‘where should I go’ has much more to do with China induced changes on my life in HK than my paper asset investment prospect. The former is geography dependent, the latter is cyber-link intermediated and geography independent, but for tax regime. The former is life style change stirring, whereas the latter is only temporary, however long lasting, feared or imagined.
Message 16731206
“I am being optimistic and am of course assuming that all the market noise and propaganda smoke is not in fact camouflaging an inflection point connecting Silicon Glory to an as yet unknown “next abracadabra”, as the Rust Belt was once transformed into Silicon Glory but accompanied by much dying anguish and birthing pain.”
I conscientiously separate the two crises in my mind, though, obviously, the development and outlook of one can and does, either ameliorates or makes worse the feel and twists/turn of the other, impacting my personal plans. Paper asset shuffle can only occupy so much of my waking hours:0)
Someone on the thread once commented that my environment colours my post. Yes, I think that is right, and so, I stick around here, always willing to be shown that I should not worry about my paper asset associated activities. This is also why I am a reluctant investor of capital in China. Can you imagine if I had to worry about paper and time allocation in the same post!0?
BTW, my wife is optimistic on both counts, even though she cannot explain why, and she is willing to move to China (as long as she has a large entourage to help her in daily life) and invest in China. Luckily she is not insistent, and knows she can be very wrong in judgement.
Chugs, Jay |
