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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LLCF who wrote (13712)	1/20/2002 3:33:45 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

<the folks around here have been saying Greenspan has chosen the wrong path [too inflationary] since before the LTCM bailout in '98, and especially since then.> For "too inflationary" there wasn't much sign of inflation. Maybe they meant too deflationary but were bamboozled by their Austrian jargon? The bubble was very simple - the irrationallyl exuberant thinking they were going to get rich quick, bidding prices to the sky. It was nothing to do with liquidity, money printing or inflation [yes, yes, I know we have a new category called asset inflation, but the word inflation is normally used to mean the goods and services we buy, not the price we pay for investments]. It was simple enough to predict a good-sized market crunch back in early 1999 [getting markets to agree with the prediction requires some patience for them to figure it out, like Wile E Coyote over the cliff]. The folks around here [this discussion] didn't start the doomstering until well into Y2K - I beat them by a year. While making idle boasts, I also got the crunch mode right as long ago as 1996 [in discussions with jfred] = Uncle Al would print flat out and rather than a domino effect collapse, we'd get a nice smooth grinding of the indebted as margin calls tidy up the leveraged and assets are redistributed to those with solid financial positions. So far, so good. Which is not to say that we are not right now suspended in mid-air [there are enough glitches going on that it's not out of the question - little glitches like Argentina, Enron, Japan ready to drop]. Mq