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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LLCF who wrote (13734)	1/20/2002 9:40:08 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

<but according to the Austrians...your thinking is exactly wrong. > Well, I don't know who these Austrians are. The last one who made it to the big time was a real problem. Come to think of it Kurt Waldheim should have been strung up too, rather than making it to be boss of the UN. Vienna is a nice place. Austria is a very clean, attractive and green place. Civilized. Waltz invented there. But I'm not sure about these Austrian economists. I do agree that the overall markets over decades have risen due to printing of lots of lovely loot and that's, as I explained, one of the big things I've been depending on for years. I meant that the aspect unaffected [mostly] by the printing was just the irrationally exuberant bubble, which happened from 1996 through to Y2K and was mainly in the dot.com and telecosmic sectors and was based on very wishful thinking about what cyberspace would do and when it would do it. What happens going forward is that the cleanout of Enrons and over-leveraged low profit businesses will continue. Novice [and unlucky expert] shareholders will be scaled and gutted and will go back to work. Markets will stabilize. Then the wonderful printing press and technology revolution will continue to do their work. Guessing the bottom is tricky. With P:Es still high and plenty of room for little surprises like Enron, Argentina and Japan, [remember Mexico, Russia, Asian Contagion too, not to mention the Zenit crash and LTCM's resulting problems], there could be some mess still to come, but increasingly for individual companies rather than everyone as the wheat is sorted from the chaff. Worst recession ever? Wow, that's quite an event. I don't think so though. Mqurice