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Gold/Mining/Energy : Corner Bay Silver (BAY.T) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TheBusDriver who wrote (3089)	1/20/2002 2:02:36 PM
From: gold$10k	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4409

Wayne, Thanks for the vote of confidence. I don't mean to rain on your parade, but I consider my recent purchase of BAY to be based on a combination of fear of missing out and a bounce about to occur. I generally consider fear of missing out to be not a good reason to buy, but this is a bull market in PMs and BAY is among the best companies. Nothing is for certain, but IMHO the most likely scenario for BAY in the short term is a bounce to somewhere in the C$2.68 to C$3.00 range with C$2.75 the most likely top, followed by a return to the current level or lower. I am expecting a pullback in the PM sector for the next 5 weeks. Since BAY was among the 1st to rise in the recent up cycle, I see it as being among the 1st to fall in the coming down cycle, and expect that it will be among the 1st to rise again in the next up cycle which I expect to begin around the 1st week of March (last BOE auction is March 5th). This is just based on what I consider to be probabilities, which is why I am still 80% invested in PMs, but not 100% as I am at cycle bottoms. Perhaps it is simplistic, but check out the cyclical nature of this chart... chart.canada-stockwatch.com Just my opinion, vt

To: TheBusDriver who wrote (3089)	1/20/2002 2:18:18 PM
From: Claude Cormier	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4409

<. I think silver is the key until something fundamentally changes or the PR guys do something.> I agree, unless of course another big buyer comes in and decide to accumlate BAY stock. A few scenarios on silver assuming that $4.30 is first suport. $4.20 is key support. $4.05 must hold. 1) It is bottoming next week. We are not goint below $4.30 and moving back up to test $4.75 again, eventually moving above $5.00 2) We will test the $4.20-$4.30 range for a few weeks and then move back up in late February/March, eventually moving above $5.00 3) We gol through $4.20 and then $4.05 to make a final low between $3.75-$4.00. We will get back up only later this summer. Your guess is as good as mine on which one is the most probable. But I vote for 1) or 2). I also think that BAY will outperform silver.