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To: techreports who wrote (49957)	1/20/2002 3:10:06 PM
From: Dexter Lives On	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Well, I admire the conviction you have in your arguments, but there are two major issues I cannot agree on. 1) phone-based computing (one-to-many network architecture) wins out over distributed PC-based computing (many-to-many network architecture) anytime in the next 20 years (ignoring the user interface issues) 2) that the debt overhang of the Nokia/Qualcomm/... customers is irrelevant to that industry's research and investment capacity. Their customers have not even begun to get squeezed - imagine if you will an interest rate spike - ouch! Then you will see the significance of whether consolidation has occurred... To illustrate (1), every time I want to perform a significant computation, the server at the WAN headend will have to be accessed; the cell will be heavily congested and 3g technologies will not be capable of supplying a satisfactory user experience, to justify exorbitant subscription rates. In a wireless networked environment, many computations could be handled on a nearby computer (assuming a handheld device is in use) through an 802.11 connection. The WAN headend access would be limited to applications requiring wider area database access. It will be a long time before a phone will be able to carry out computations more efficiently than the computer in the next room. If you're arguing that Linux will overtake Windows, well, that argument has been made before ;^> . Cheers. Rob

To: techreports who wrote (49957)	1/20/2002 10:03:24 PM
From: Tom Pulley	Respond to of 54805

Techreports, Interesting points you make. Although it won't happen overnight, as we move toward more mobile computing and wireless networks, who knows what might happen. Although Msft has the advantage of cash and size, perhaps their biggest problem is the need to grow their high margins and profits. As with the gorillas of the past, maintaining the leading technology and also maintaining high profit margins is not that easy. In today's world, there is always another technology that can accomplish the same thing cheaper, but if you own the old standard with high margins......it becomes a catch 22......move to the lower cost technology and watch margins decline or try to fight off the new technologies and watch margins decline. I will be very surprised in 2010 if Microsoft and Intel are the powerhouses they are today. More than 20 years of industry leader in technology is tough to achieve. Tom

To: techreports who wrote (49957)	1/20/2002 10:07:19 PM
From: Dinesh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Hmm..maybe it's just me, but I think millions of people and governments would love to move away from Microsoft hold. Hmm..maybe it's just me, but I think the majority of those "millions" must be reporters trying to find a story to fill an ad page. At one time they were supposed to move to Mac. Then, to a Linux. Now, to something smarter I suppose. When the time comes, we all will switch, without any prompting from anybody. Just like we did - from corded phones to cordless to cellular, and from telco's voicemail to an owned answering machine, big screen to video at home, ad nauseam. -D