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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joan Osland Graffius who wrote (28034)	1/20/2002 10:43:40 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

Definitely agree they are over valued as are most techs. I have been saying for a while I am not that bearish on the economy from here on out, I just have a problem with valuations of the market in general. The only reason I was keying in on MSFT, IBM and mentioned TYC is I see those 3 along with GE as the big conglomerates of today. They either already are or are in a position to get their hands on a wide range of products and services so that they are diversified out of what we tend to think of them as being. IBM and GE are pretty much already there and TYC has been aggressively buying stuff up to get there. MSFT is finally starting to get into some hardware production and has the cash to buy out more areas of interest. If things got really ugly in the market and valuations came waaay down, those may be the survivors. Now as stock plays, we may be better off trying to guess which stocks will get bought out to capture the buy out premiums. It is too early to worry about that though as we have to see if this bubble will ever burst or if the mania can go on a few more years. Thanks for the great work up on ADM. I have never fully understood how ADM and CAG worked. As for AGM, I just watch the chart. I haven't had the guts to own them yet for the reasons you state. It is like the Mortgage Trusts like ADI. Love the charts, but I hate the whole concept as to the risk they entail. All I read on line is about Strip malls shutting down, office buildings sitting empty yet the trusts that run them seem to just keep climbing. Either I am missing something or this is going to be the next deck of cards that comes tumbling down. Yes, I like the energy and oils but as I have said here over the last couple months, I won't touch Natural Gas right now as inventories are just too high. I believe most of them are now selling gas at or below cost of production so the dividends are disappearing from some of the trusts like SJT and dropping to almost nothing in the others like HGT, TRU etc. If the 6 year highs in inventory come down later this summer, I will start moving back into them again. The idea of using the preferds and convertables is a good idea I hadn't thought of though. Last year, I just used the TRusts as a means to play the spike up when we were coming off of record low inventories. Oil I have no idea on. The cuts from OPEC should start kicking in soon but the temptation to cheat in production, the lower usage from the global recession and Russia trying to be our new best friend are going to weigh on oil prices. I am trying to get smarter on the oil situation and signed up for every government study and newsletter I could find this weekend. Hopefully after a few weeks of reading and studying, I will be in a better situation to make heads or tails of it. Good Luck, Lee