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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LLCF who wrote (13743)	1/20/2002 9:01:46 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

<...his productivity assumptions presume that analysts, purchasing managers, and indeed investments in general are made in rational profitable ways. This has already proven false... yet one presumes that there is 'something' there... with no proof.> DAK, this is denial of the human mind because it's imperfect and the future is not predictable with the tools we have. It is obvious that some application of brains is better than none. Everyone here thinks and learns and thinks some more and they all think they are thinking something useful. Even those who don't think at all and just invest using the monkey method [darts on a board] or Flippism are deliberately depending on others to have done the thinking for them. They expect that as always, the index will make a small, but certain, long-run profit. They are right. They are right to depend on other people to slave away doing the thinking and moving stock prices towards the right value. Investments in general are in fact made in rational and profitable ways [to a greater or lesser extent]. They are not random events in a dark and mindless universe. Uncle Al is right to use analysts as a reference point, while acknowledging that they are closer to monkeys in evolutionary terms than they are to God so their future predictions will not come with a double your money back guarantee - which I always offer with my predictions. Mqurice