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Technology Stocks : Siebel Systems (SEBL) - strong buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: puborectalis who wrote (5534)	1/22/2002 10:26:14 PM
From: chojiro	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6974

SO I'm sitting here thinking, what might happen tomorrow in the conference call? We can all agree that they are not going to disappoint with earnings, but the bigger question(which the article you cite) is what the future holds. Tom Siebel is in the sweet spot with wall street for his past performance and guidance- and subsequently meeting or beating. But what happens if there is a cautionary tone in his forecasts for the remainder of '02? Not trying to spread fear here, just thinking out loud, many can attest I have been wrong before. But if SEBL, considered a bellwether for the biz sends out some mixed messages that are not all too becoming to the masses, where will that leave the stock price? Does anyone here think a stellar earnings and guidance are priced into the current stock price? For a moment, let's ignore the fact it is up over 100% since October. It's sporting a TTM PE of about 60. Not too bad, auusming they can guarantee further growth at current levels. But, IMO, if they stumble one little bit in the way they talk or "body language" as FD brings out the psychic in all analysts now isn't up to snuff, what are the possibilities of SEBL going through what CHKP just did on their last report. *Yes, I know they are in a different sector, but none the less, what if.... Good luck. P.S> Did I mention I have a small short position here? Not a super entry as I post it, though higher than today's close, I will be watching closely the tape tomorrow. It never lies, though sometimes try to shake out the weak hands, both long and short