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To: yard_man who wrote (144961)	1/20/2002 9:51:43 PM
From: At_The_Ask	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

What exactly are you predicting based on your rydex analysis? I'm guessing a huge gold sell off and a major index rally?

To: yard_man who wrote (144961)	1/20/2002 10:43:30 PM
From: reaper	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

tip -- EXCEPT at turning points, the CROWD is actually RIGHT (sort of by definition). so if we are in fact in a primary BEAR market, then one would expect to see bearish Rydex bets (i.e. short the market) increase, over time, and continue the bearish trend, much as the increased bullish bets, over time, led the market higher. everything (we think) we know about what the Rydex ratios mean, at least as longer-term signals, we learned in a BULL market. i think that we should all be prepared to expect indicators that we've been using for the last handful of years to no longer work, or to work backwards. to the extent that you guys are arguing about what Rydex is signalling for the next two weeks, as opposed to the next two months or two years, then i withdraw my statement. Cheers