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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BigBull who wrote (16911)	1/21/2002 2:05:15 PM
From: Nadine Carroll	Respond to of 281500

Disagree on the money. This campaign is only a few month old, give it some time. As Arafat looks more and more impotent the money will dry up and or be cut off. The destruction of all the symbols of statehood are key in this regard. He is currently shooting his last loads. There will be Arab Mushareff's before this is all over. You're more optimistic than I am. Debka is reporting that Arafat does not intend to go quietly and will bring out all smuggled artillery in a last battle. Since Haaretz is also reporting that Israel is warning Hamas and the PA via intermediaries that they better not try using their Qasem rockets, I give this report credence. Going quietly is just not Arafat's style, anyway. To support even a Musharref, Palestinian politics would need to become more functional than it has been to date. The Palestinian style of politics in the last century is the one leader, who keeps subordinate leaders from developing either a power base or institutions of government. This was the Mufti's style and it's been Arafat's as well. Thus, the leadership has no succession plan and no bench depth. In short, when Arafat goes, we'll have to see who wins the shoot-out and what shape he's in after winning. As for the money, Arafat has been kept alive many times in the past after disasterous choices because his funders hate Israel so very much. Maybe this time is finally different, but I'll believe it when I see it, not before.