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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joan Osland Graffius who wrote (28043)	1/21/2002 2:45:27 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

I wish it were that simple. I have been following the discussions on some of the energy threads and it is pretty complex and I don't have the time to figure out all the different plants and consumption rates to figure out who is right and who is wrong. While you make an accurate statement regarding the taking off line of many nuclear plants, many older, less effecient Natural Gas plants are also being replaced with more efficient Natural Gas plants thus there will be some energy savings there. ALso, many of the plants will be set up to burn oil, Gas or coal with the new scrubbers in place. In this way, they can take advantage of which ever fuel is cheapest at the time though it is a bit more complex than just flipping a switch. I agree that the over all affect will be to burn more Natural Gas in the future but just how large a jump, I have no idea. I also don't know how many wells will dry be depleted or shut down in the near future as the easy gas is extracted and wells are shut down due to lower prices and the ENE fall out. Consumption of electricity is definitely on the fast upswing as I read a while back that a typical internet server farm uses more electricity than a few full sized multi story office buildings. The age of computing and connectivity places a heavy toll on electric consumption that isn't likely to fade any time soon. Heck, in my house alone, my power bill has now gone up 500% from $40 a month to $200 a month due to larger TV screens, 5 computers burning monitors all day and then the higher costs from the summer shortage of power and subsequent rate hikes. I have tried to shut off some monitors more often but it doesn't seem to help much with the kids getting online more as they grow older. The sad thing is, Idaho has some of the lowest power rates in the nation. I will be hurting when I most likely move to another area later this year. What I don't understand is why many of the power stocks have been retreating sharply lately. BKH, IDA, AYE etc were some of teh best gainers last year but have retreated sharply since the summer. I don't know about the rest of the country, but my power company hasn't decided to drop their rates since the power crunch ended. Someone is making some money on the spread. -gggggg- Good Luck, Lee