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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tom Pulley who wrote (82608)	1/21/2002 9:03:22 AM
From: Casaubon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

have you thought of trying to modify your system to utilize EOD pricing rather than opens? If so, how did this effect returns. TIA

To: Tom Pulley who wrote (82608)	10/25/2002 5:13:59 PM
From: Tom Pulley	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 99985

After all my bullish posts the last few weeks, it may seem odd but my timing model has given the signal to go from 100% invested back to just 50% invested. The long term part of the model is still very bullish for the next year or so, but the short term indicators are very overbought and pushed the model into the 50% cash position. The signal may be premature as the same thing happened last fall and took me out of the bull run early. Time will tell, but the model is up 25% this year so I don't mind being a bit conservative here and taking some profits. At the beginning of the year I said I would post all buys and sells from my timing model (which I have), and below is a record of the buys and sells I've posted. My theory was that if I posted each buy and sell it would encourage me keep the model updated every day and actually act on the model instead of trying to outsmart it as I've occasionally done in prior years (g). Year to date the model is up 25% versus the QQQ which is down 38%. Tom - January 2nd: buy qqq at open 39.57......$100,000 in qqq. - January 4: sell qqq at open 41.95.......$106,005 in cash. - January 7: short 25% of account at open 42.11......$79,504 cash, $26,491 short qqq. - February 7: buy back qqq short at $36.00......$109,829 in cash. - February 20: go 50% long, buy qqq at 34.9......$54,904 in qqq, 54,915 in cash. - February 22: go to 100% long at open, buy qqq at 33.61.....$107,780 in qqq. - April 25: Went to 110% long at open at qqq of 32.3. - May 14: Sold 10% of long position going back to 100% long on open at qqq of 32.05.....$102,687 in qqq. - May 15: Went to 100% cash next open at 32.54....$104,247 cash. - May 27: Went to 25% short at next open at 31.47. - June 10: Went to 100% cash at open......$106,802. - July 3: Went 50% long at open at 23.85....$53,391 in qqq, $53,401 in cash. - July 5: Went to 100% long at open at $25.26. Total 4352 shares qqq long. - July 22: Went to 110 % long at open at $23.85. Total 4787 shares qqq and margin debt of $10,385. - August 16: Sold 10% margin at open at 24.08. Long 4308 qqq and $1122 cash. - August 18: Sold 50% of position on August 19 at $24.84. Now at $54,617 cash and 2154 shares qqq. - August 26: Went to 100% cash at open at 25.35. Now at cash of $109,211. - Sept 3: Went to 50% long at the open at $23.01. 2373 shares qqq and $54,605 cash. - Sept 12: went to 25% short at 23.22.…..1181 qqq shares short and $82,272 cash. - Sept 18th: went to 100% cash at $22.20.……….$110,891 cash. - Sept 20th: went to 100% long at qqq $21.80.……5086 shares qqq. - Oct 25th: will go to 50% cash on open Monday.

To: Tom Pulley who wrote (82608)	12/30/2002 4:17:42 PM
From: Tom Pulley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

No sign of the January effect at this point. I wonder if we really saw much tax loss selling this year since most people already have tax loss carryovers from 2001 and 2000. We'll know in a couple weeks. Tonight I will start updating the results of my timing model for the year and at yearend will provide the results on a monthly basis as well as annual basis. One of the goals of the model is to beat the market with consistent performance. My definition of consistent performance is for 65-70% of trades to be successful. Ideally the model should outperform the market not only on an annual basis but also in at least 8 of 12 months of the year (67% of months). It will be interesting to look at these statistics for this year. The other key statistic I will calculate is the average gain for winning trades versus the average loss for losing trades. Tom