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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jon Koplik who wrote (111258)	1/21/2002 8:35:06 PM
From: limtex	Respond to of 152472

JK - World handset numbers going forward. I was struck by the Chinese projection a few days ago that they expect to have their production up to 235m handset a year by 2005 representing 1/3 of the Global handset market. My guess is that the the collaspe in wireless stocks over the last month has been due to a realization gradually dawning on fund mamagers that those kind of numbers may not be anywhere near realistic. Nearly 700m handsets ayear interpolating that Chinese number and that in 2005. How many are there now and how about the next three years. Then what will the total be and what kind of growth does that predicate. And what of the growth after 2005. Say 2006 at 10% = nearly 770m handsets pa at 15% nearly 800m handsets pa. 15% growth isn't exactly big P/E stuff. In any eent after about three years ie around 2008 or 2009 there will have to be annual Global handset sales approaching 1bn per annum. Maybe I'm going nuts but that seems like too big a number to be realistic. Far too big. Europe is saturated, the US is gettting there, Japan is Korea is and many of the rest of the World population is either too poor or too young to be able to add much to the numbers. 1X is going to be great in the US, Canada etc but in Europe? Who needs broadband wireless in Europe? Europeans aren't as heavily into the tech life as the US. The US is a country that is a continent Europe is a continent of countries. Sure thee are some EU dreamers that dream if a USE but it is a tower of Babel, with even more languages. Even if wireless broadband eventually does take off in Europe it may be a long time coming and the hapless Euro consumers will have to pay through the nose for it. See what they have to pay for voice only calls now, just iagine what they will get gouged for broadband. Anyway GPRS has been touted as 2.5G, it is probably better than no GPRS ( just about) and how many millions of GPRS handsets have actually been sold? OK, 1 million, OK then 500,000 ....how many. The point is that imho what we are seeing is a revaluation. Q is valued at how much ...16 x annual revenues????????? In this climate ..just doesn't feel right. AS for 1X persoanlly I can't wati but that has nothing to do with valuations. Best, L

To: Jon Koplik who wrote (111258)	1/22/2002 2:01:29 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Respond to of 152472

if Mucho is indeed now heavily invested in fixed income securities (as he has stated) ... One must remember that being in bonds is not as exhilarating as being in wireless stocks. true, especially high-quality issues of short duration. i have a short on the QQQ equal to about 1% of portfolio value...its daily change in value is almost the same as that of the other 99% of the portfolio (which is 90% bonds, though much very short term). i kind of want the QQQ to rise to 45 so i could short a bit more aggressively. BTW, WTF happened to QCOM.