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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Henry Volquardsen who wrote (5454)	1/23/2002 9:57:39 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

The current Japanese demographic is rapidly aging and there are fewer young workers, percentage wise, to rebuild. Also there is no visible destruction to the economy to give people a focus for sacrifice. Excellent comments on Japan Henry!! And as you already know from my comments on other threads, I share you concerns about the demographic issues. I believe these are the most relevant trend that faces many nations. And the only solution is for the Japanese to force the "destruction" of their homogenous society, and "importing" the required tax base necessary to pay for their aging population. Thus, the economic strife that is evident currently is setting the stage for future political and cultural turmoil. So the solution, imo, amounts to Japan devaluing their yen substantially in order to compete against other Asian exporters, while figuring out how to attract foreigners to immigrate to Japan and subsidize their retirees. The latter, to say the least, will not find much enthusiasm from the Japanese people who have prided themselves for their cultural "uniqueness" (at least the older folks have). So I see only heightening political turmoil lying in store for Japan, and the devaluation of the Yen will increase regional tensions and internal radicalism as more Japanese workers are laid off. Given the proper circumstances, the Japanese people will accept whoever they feel will "solve" their problems, and this might lead the way to the reassertion of more authoritarian political parties. It will require 5-10 years, imo, but I see it as inevitable. And given the high birth rates in surrounding underdeveloped nations, Japan's demographic situation will grow more tenuous and their politics more reactionary. Hawk