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To: Tradelite who wrote (145262)1/22/2002 7:55:32 PM
From: benwood  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 436258
 
The issue about refinances being counted as sales: is this new? If not, then the differential mentioned here still shows the higher relative turnover.

While renting ain't cheap, the Canadian research considered everything and renting was cheaper. I don't actually think the Vancouver article included moving around, which was my idea. Most relocation expenses, however, only include the cost of moving, not the money that's lost due to paying an extra real estate commission, or extra excise tax for a sale if one chooses to sell & buy a new house. The group of those that receive *that* kind of compensation for having is probably extremely small as a relative percentage -- CEO's, Presidents of universities, etc.

I don't think you can extend your usage of debt to the entire economy. And your situation actually *is* debt -- just short term (i.e. 3-4 weeks). The fact that you are getting it "free" doesn't mean it's not debt. When you pay it off every month, how big could it be, really? My wife and I average $2k per month on credit cards which are paid off. If we stopped using our cards, we'd have to draw down our savings by $2k to compensate (and keep our cash flow just as smooth). So we are using it for a reason.

But that's nothing compared to the folks who have $10k to $50k or more out on their cards now (and I know some).

I'm not taking any position wrt real estate myself, however, I think the day of reckoning will be coming for the debt-burdened consumer and the businesses that rely on an exponentially expanding capacity for consumers to carry it, and the real-estate bubble will be one reason that day will be painful.



To: Tradelite who wrote (145262)1/22/2002 8:14:44 PM
From: LLCF  Respond to of 436258
 
Look, re. FNM, at best it's a cyclical stock at the top of it's cycle. If you don't believe defaults will be a problem, then you can look at it that way... but it's not some bond with an increasing coupon.

<Obviously, the bear case for real estate has a few holes to fill in terms of analyzing data, in my humble opinion. >

Well, sure there's no "proof".... when there is it'll all be alot lower :)

DAK