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To: Tradelite who wrote (145265)	1/22/2002 6:23:01 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

short term blips?? ... yeah, right! Your only experience with a recession was '91 give us a friggin' break man.

To: Tradelite who wrote (145265)	1/22/2002 6:28:25 PM
From: marginmike	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 436258

tell that to people who owned apartements on the Grand concourse in the bronx, or in any other area that fell in detroit when a plant left. Re values have toped, it will be a slow grind down but the prices in big metro areas are already down.

To: Tradelite who wrote (145265)	1/22/2002 6:46:09 PM
From: reaper	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

<<if you hold your real estate long enough--and I hope you do---you can ignore the ups and downs of real estate valuation>> But that is precisely my point; it is dangerous & inappropriate to leverage equity at 9:1 UNLESS you can hold onto your real estate for the "long term". The existing home sales data series I cited earlier in this discussion shows much higher "churn" -- i.e. average holding periods decreasing. My issue with the real estate market is that there are a TON of people sitting there with something like 0-10% down who are going to lose a job or be forced to move during the "short-term blip" who are going to be HOSED. I also want to address your point about "they ain't making any more land." That is very true. But I would also point out that more and more of what you are paying for in a real estate transaction today is the HOUSE, and not the land (the average house is something like 50% bigger than it was 20 years ago, I think; if you strongly dis-agree I'll actually look for a source). While LAND is an appreciating asset, the structure on that land is a DEPRECIATING asset. And people are taking out 30-year loans with no equity on a depreciating asset, and the banks are lending that money. For a look at what happens when you lend long term on a depreciating asset, check out Conseco (CNC), the kings of manufactured housing lending. The banks are going to get hosed, and a whole swath of the population is going to be rendered technically bankrupt. Cheers