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Technology Stocks : Leap Wireless International (LWIN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pcstel who wrote (1149)	1/22/2002 9:52:30 PM
From: A.L. Reagan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2737

Question for PCStel or anyone else: Why did LEAP have to pay $38 million in income taxes for the first nine months of 2001? Also, what are the chances LEAP will be called on its guarantee of Pegaso debt? Left LWIN years ago in the mid-40's, beginning to look attractive down here. From a simpleton's viewpoint (all I have at this stage) wondering whether they are better served slowing down the new markets (which looks like it might happen anyway thanks to the Congress putting the ix-nay on the NextWave settlement) and concentrating on increasing market share in existing markets, where you don't have to lay out all the cash for licenses and infra - i.e. when you add some share points on an existing market, assuming you still have lots of capacity which appears to be the case, A LOT of the incremental revenues fall to the bottom line. When you go into new markets... well, you guys already know what those financials look like. "Free", as was calculated a few posts back, is a nice price for a company, but it can be a fool's bargain if the assets are pissed away. Maybe there are some messages from Mr. Market. Like we are not valuing growth for growth's sake like the good old days. Like bidding up the prices of spectrum to keep some other guy out has its limits. (That was the big rationale for Europe 3G auctions, remember?) Like LWIN is getting to the tap out point on vendor financing and fixed debt, everybody knows they have to hit the equity markets soon - this could be a great hedge fund short scheme (which may soon run its course.) Maybe it is way too early for the numbers to be reliable, but metrics that are similar to "same store sales" rather than systemwide net adds and aggregate ARPU would be useful. For example, does anybody know about what percentage of the pops in an "average" Cricket market you need to have as subscribers to say generate a contribution margin (after ammo of licenses and equipment depr) of say 15% of revenues? Are they getting near this in any of the markets? I'm liking companies better which are putting away the Risk board for the time being and concentrating on the basic blocking and tackling required to build long-term successful customer franchises - even if it takes a while. The basic customer value proposition here is the strong selling point. But strategies need to be in tune with the times.