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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: carranza2 who wrote (13781)	1/22/2002 7:36:06 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 74559

Hi Carranza2, it scares me that I am mostly in agreement with you, even as Maurice and I come into more alignment on matters on the thread. I had trouble only with this <<A golden equilibrium may be reached>>, because there is no such thing per Soros reflexivity etc:0) <<Between manufacturing deflation, service inflation, relocation of factories, spreading of income generation, overall increase in demands for commodities, wealth (what is left of it) will be redistributed, from developed countries to China/India/Russia, from creditors to debtors, from Japan to the US/Europe/China, from the world to Argentina (in a manner of speaking, on what is left of it).>> I could be all wrong on this, and I am certainly not an expert on cause-effect, but, (a) Because of manufacturing outsourcing, mostly offshore to the developed countries, manufacturing deflation proceeds, picking up speed as more of China/India/Russia (yes, Russia will be back) gets more and more into the act; (b) Service inflation in developed countries, due to money printing, will also pickup speed. As in USD 500k will earn enough interest for 1.5 Big Mac meals per week; © More folks around the world making a ‘living wage’ will put pressure on commodities, witness China’s effect on any given commodity trading when buying; (d) Inflation is bad for creditors and ‘good’ for debtors; (e) Manufacturing deflation is bad for developed economies, and ‘good’ for developing economies. When ‘good’ and ‘bad’ are used as labels, folks forget that each coin has two sides, and both sides effect the economy, good and bad, but certainly tipping it from one golden equilibrium to another one, sometimes not so golden. So I am with you on <<The trend is not good … getting uglier>>. I am with you on the real estate in beautiful places hedge. I am not with you on <<Forget the dripping-with-blood-Aztec gold>> hedge. I just do not know. Chugs, Jay