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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (13782)	1/22/2002 7:44:28 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Maurice, we are in agreement, up to a point, and then stop here ... <<Stockmarkets will zoom up>> because it probably will go down, big time, because general (service) cost inflation without producer pricing power and without demand volume increase will trash most manufacturing companies, even without considering zooming interest rate spiking into the body corporate, ending the life of leverage beasts such as Enron and Argentina. <<I think the Q is going to be very attractive as a currency compared with the medieval process currently used>> ... you may think this, and you may bet this, but I advise you hedge, in case you are wrong, and then we can agree more:0) Chugs, Jay

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (13782)	1/22/2002 7:51:25 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Maurice, Hong Kong, being the #1 Economically free place in the world, is already here ... <<When they decide to go shopping in 10 years, their $1 million will buy them a few cans of baked beans ... not much else>> ... USD 1 million will now earn US$ 9.5 per week, good for some burgers and a coke. I would guess that we are not at a 'golden equilibrium' ;0) What do you think? Guess what, the shares are not rising, property is not booming, folks are losing jobs, wages are 'stable to down', and no one sees the end of gloom. Money, as they say, is not everything, regardless of Greenspankie says (and he doesn't even say it without hedge fudge). Chugs, Jay

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (13782)	1/10/2004 11:21:09 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Hello Maurice, following up to this Message 16945705 <<January 22, 2002 ... USD 1 million will now earn US$ 9.5 per week, good for some burgers and a coke. I would guess that we are not at a 'golden equilibrium' ;0) What do you think? Guess what, the shares are not rising, property is not booming, folks are losing jobs, wages are 'stable to down', and no one sees the end of gloom ...>> ... response to your ... <<But one day, as you say, the reckoning will come, the economies will pick up and inflation will start roaring as those freshly-printed bills look for a happy home, but everyone has got so many of them to offer workers that the workers start raising their prices to see what the market will bear {I hasten to add that the market will bear the opposite of a bear}. So, in a couple of years, we can expect the money presses to be shut with a bang and interest rates to roar higher and higher as savers realize what a diddling they've suffered and that their money would be better invested in stockmarkets or owning cans of baked beans which will be earning more than the current low interest rates. Stockmarkets will zoom up, the consumer price index will bound higher, hourly rates will go up, government printing presses will stop and governments will have to trim their profligacy.>> ... point to point, you are wrong in USD terms and your are wrong in purchasing power terms. We are further along the process now, but, gad, guess what, ther will not likely be wage inflation even though interest rate will rise, and so all your happily puffed up assets purchased at bubbly prices will deflate. ... and now, Message 19676179 <<January 10th, 2004 ... The yearly interest on above HKD 1 mm (about USD 128,000) will buy two McD Big Breakfast with large OJ. There has been a decay of money's power in Hong Kong by 90% since 24 months ago ;0)>> ... is true in HKD terms, and true in USD terms. ... and we wait another 12 months :0) Chugs, Jay