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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jason Rooks who wrote (21486)	1/22/2002 8:29:14 PM
From: Art Bechhoefer	Respond to of 60323

Jason, it's just impossible to predict anything at this point, since the company has not come out with any announcements whatsoever. I sent several questions to CFO Calderoni back in November, concerning the convertible issue and other matters and got a reply that gave no information whatsoever. If I had to guess, based on the lack of info (if there were something good to report, we might have heard it already), the results will be lackluster, and serious questions will be raised about the change in profit expectations from the sale of the Manassas plant to Micron. Unless I am totally missinformed, I'd guess that the financial statement will be a bad one, and the stock will linger at or below present levels for another few months. Art

To: Jason Rooks who wrote (21486)	1/22/2002 10:43:03 PM
From: Ausdauer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 60323

Jason, Eli stated that Q4 would likely be the bottom for SNDK... ...and despite a good holiday season for "all things digital" there are several areas of concern. First, the business plan has changed dramatically with the closing of Dominion. This is, at the very least, an admission that flash memory is overabundant. Second, there has been a dilution of the outstanding shares during the quarter. Third, ASP's still headed downward in Q4 despite the steep declines earlier in the year. For example, this holiday season you could buy a 128 MB CompactFlash for significantly less that what a 64 MB CompactFlash cost last year. My unofficial checks at retail indicate that major retailers still offer products from two or three competing manufacturers. Rebates abound despite aggressive pricing. This week SNDK is giving away USB readers at BestBuy, for example. The only people who are doing well in this type of environment are consumers. I am also concerned about comps. Last year we did around $170 million in total revs for Q4. I think we will be lucky to see $75 million this quarter. Well, at least we have been spared any pre-announcements. SSTI has already pre-announced and paid the price. I think the market environment for flash of any density is still soft. This means that flash card assemblers have access to very cheap wafer and will continue to push prices down. For example, at BestBuy it would seem that PNY has an endless supply of products and rebates and give-aways that are almost too good to be true. Let's hope there is a silver lining, but I tend to agree with Art that we will have very little wind in our sails for the next few months. Aus