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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kodiak_bull who wrote (6140)	1/23/2002 12:34:22 AM
From: Frank	Respond to of 206198

Koll--and kodiak--thank you for that interesting and informative exchange. That kind of repartee serves us all well--Frank

To: kodiak_bull who wrote (6140)	1/23/2002 10:22:29 AM
From: kollmhn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206198

KB- I hear you and understand your point. Now, as to LEN (which I'm still short big time and barely breakeven on), I was a bit concerned when I saw it touch a new high yesterday but, I thought I'd wait to see it it could close there before covering. It didn't hold its gains so, I held my ground. If it "wants to go down" as you say, I'm all for it and my reading of the chart tells me it could happen. However, I have not learned the "stick game" and that part of my arsenal may be wanting. BTW, MIR is setting new lows......any end in sight for that one? Even if eps gets cut yet again, this one looks cheap.

To: kodiak_bull who wrote (6140)	1/23/2002 1:34:22 PM
From: kollmhn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206198

KB- I'm wondering if charting really is appropriate in HC's case right now? I believe that the fall off is event driven, i.e., a huge seller who needs to have 18mm sold by Friday. (We'll find out soon enough if that is the case). When will he be done? It will occur when he is done unloading and that will be a finite event that occurs in a single moment. Will the charts tell us when that moment is to come? Will it be at 1:39 today or, 3:13 on friday? The charts may indicate when it occurred but, by then it could be way too late. It cannot and will not forecast when the big seller will be done. Thus, I feel you should grab your opportunity (the baby's being tossed) when it's presented because when it is gone, we may have to chase the stock (and, Oh, how I hate that). Candlesticking works, IMO, when there is "normal activity"(?), namely, when the combined sentiments of all the "regular" player's" action results in a pattern of behavior. Normal behavior usually has more subtle changes that TA can actually alert us to. Secondly, it is important to realize my goal is to accumulate an investment position for the longer haul and larger gain. I am not interested in trading profits, per se, (though I've never pooh poohed them) because I am saddled (blessed?) by a 45% marginal tax rate. I prefer the 25% rate. So, my first concern is "is this a good investment?" My second is "is this the right time (place in the cycle)and price to enter the stock?" Is it toppy or oversold? Thirdly, even if wrong, do I have enough liquidity to make it right? IMO, it would border on arrogance (no, not yours)to think that relying on the chart to call the bottom, justifies spending 100% of one's targeted amount at that price, yet, if the chart read is accurate, one should do precisely that, right? Who would? I always work my way into a position, in pieces. Now, I understand that the TA calls may be suited for short term moves and that traders might use it to scalp a few schekels here and there. The thing that it doesn't do, IMO, is tell you when the longer cyclical turn has been made. That can only be seen long after the fact, IMO. Call me arrogant but, I think (guess is more like it) that this stock is at or, close to THE low. Frankly, I don't believe HC will drop another 2-3 points but, if it does I'll add with a smile on my face. Mind you, I'm gambling that there is no boogey man in their closet. (BTW, I think UCO is merely trading in sympathy so, I've added more of that name, today, as well.) If you see one, you'll let me know, won't you? ....cheers.