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To: JohnG who wrote (111414)	1/23/2002 1:34:59 PM
From: Keith Feral	Respond to of 152472

That would make sense. I really think the analysts screwed the pooch on this quarter. US CDMA numbers are not the only game in town. Korea's 9 month vacation from handset sales ended upbruptly with SKT's return to the market in the December quarter. Korea can easily sell 4 to 5 million handsets in a single quarter when things get rockin. Also, chipset sales to Chinese manufacturers should be viewed as a leading indicator of handset sales. There is a 3 to 6 month lead time from the time that Chinese handset makers started to receive volume shipments before they could sell the handsets. IF they want to sell phones in the March quarter, they had better start taking delivery of chipsets in the December quarter. The same would be true for Japan in the March quarter. If they plan a national launch of 1X to compete with iMode, they had better buy a ton of MSM 5200 ASICs with USB port connections to ensure volume delivery of handsets in 3 months. The same would also be true for companies supplying US carriers. If they want to deliver CDMA2000 handsets to PCS by the March quarter and VZ by the June quarter, they had better get busy assembling some 1X ASICs into their handsets. The future upgrade cycle for CDMA handsets demands the prior bookings. The sequential upgrades from CDMA markets around the world will keep things sailing smooth until the GSM/GPRS conversion gets going in the second half. WCDMA, India, Nextel, TDMA upgrades in South America, Korean exports to Southeast Asia, 450 MHZ in Russia & Eastern Europe, etc... will add to the 3G CDMA pipeline for 2003. Not a good time to be selling lost hopes for CDMA2000 operators in the US. What happens if the consolidation game begins for wireless operators looking to restore growth?